Global high-tech trade is experiencing a period of significant flux. While US and European high-tech exports are growing, China’s have declined, with India and Indonesia emerging as fast-growing exporters. Electric vehicle and medical technology exports are booming.
Since 2019, global and high-tech trade have exhibited substantial volatility. Following a strong post-pandemic recovery in 2021 and a subsequent slowdown in 2022, total merchandise trade is projected to grow by a mere 0.8 percent in 2023, while high-tech exports are forecast to decline by 4 percent (Trade Data Monitor and WIPO analysis). This slowdown is attributed to shifting global value chains, geopolitical tensions, and inflation-driven increases in high-tech goods costs. However, the development of new sectors, particularly in renewable energy, batteries, and electric vehicles, is partially mitigating this decline.
Chinese high-tech exports fell 11.4 percent to USD 728.2 billion in the first ten months of 2023. Smartphone exports decreased by almost 7 percent to USD 106.8 billion, and data processing machine sales dropped 24 percent to USD 82.8 billion (see Figure 3). Shipments to key trading partners also fell significantly: exports to the U.S. declined by 21 percent to USD 102.7 billion; to the Republic of Korea by 13.4 percent to USD 33.9 billion; and to the Netherlands by almost 20 percent to USD 33 billion. Despite this decline, China remains the leading high-tech exporter (see Figure 2). Other Asian economies also experienced export decreases, including the Republic of Korea (down 28 percent to USD 110 billion) and Japan (down 10 percent to USD 76.9 billion). Vietnam fared better, with a 1.7 percent decrease to USD 115 billion (first nine months of 2023).
In contrast, U.S. high-tech exports increased by 4.4 percent to USD 282.5 billion, with growth across various sectors including smartphones, routers, and computer parts. Germany’s high-tech exports rose 6.6 percent to USD 217.4 billion, driven by increases in large aircraft, immunological products, and electronic integrated circuits. France saw a 2.7 percent increase to USD 97.7 billion, largely due to growth in aircraft, electronic integrated circuits, and spacecraft. Austria, Hungary, and Poland also experienced significant high-tech export growth.
India’s high-tech exports increased 16.5 percent to USD 33.7 billion (first ten months of 2023), boosted by strong growth in smartphones, turbojets, and solar panel cells. Indonesia’s exports rose 3.6 percent to USD 8.7 billion, driven by increases in routers, automatic data processing parts, and smartphones.
Medical technologies, electric vehicles, nuclear energy, and aircraft/spacecraft are experiencing significant export growth. The medical technology sector saw increases across various products, including anti-serum, electro-diagnostic apparatus, immunological products, hormones, steroids, and artificial joints. Electric vehicle exports are also booming, with strong growth in Germany, China, Belgium, the Republic of Korea, and the U.S. (see Figure 4). Lithium oxide exports, crucial for battery production, increased by 80.1 percent to USD 5.2 billion.
